The Conference Board, a global research association, made a splash with their 2011 global outlook. The group’s most interesting claims are that emerging markets will drive “global growth” and that China could pass the U.S. on one measure of economic size as early as 2012. The Conference Board is making two mistakes many observers make, and which the media gladly eats up.
First, the Conference Board projects China could have a larger economy than America when adjusting for purchasing power parity (ppp). PPP is a way to account for different prices across countries. For example, most things are cheaper in China than the U.S., so a dollar’s worth of money, or 6.7 yuan, generally buys more in the PRC than the U.S.
In that light, the dollar value of China’s GDP should be revised higher in comparison to America’s. For 2009, the World Bank has American GDP near $14.3 trillion and Chinese GDP at $9.1 trillion using ppp, where using normal GDP China was at $4.9 trillion.
Moreover, China almost always revises GDP higher after the fact and boasts much faster growth than the U.S. It’s not going to pass the U.S. in 2012 but, in current ppp terms, it could get close. Hence the headline.
Now the part headlines miss: prices change. What a dollar’s worth of money buys in the PRC is slipping. Chinese prices are rising faster than American prices, arguably much faster. The ppp comparison between the U.S. and China’s is going to change, making China’s economy look smaller.
This has happened before. The last time the World Bank adjusted its ppp measurements, the ostensible size of the Chinese economy fell 40 percent. PPP has advantages but, as you move farther in time from the price measurements that give purchasing power across economies, ppp can tell a very inaccurate story.
The Conference Board might have adjusted for prices changing over time but they gave no indication of having done so. More important: most commentators will not adjust for changing prices; they will take the current ppp measurement and run. That will in turn generate a lot of false claims that China’s economy is soon to be bigger than America’s.
The second mistake the Conference Board made is already common: fast-growing economies drive global growth. That seems sensible but it gives fast-growing economies too much credit. Fast-growing economies may be helping everyone but they may be only helping themselves.
In 2010, China will not add to the rest of the world’s GDP, its trade surplus means it will take almost $200 billion away from the rest of the world’s GDP. This is just a function of how GDP is counted. The PRC does contribute to the world economy in many ways but it is badly misleading to suggest that it is doing the most to help the rest of the world. China is raising the average of GDP growth among countries but doing so in part by continuing to drain GDP from the rest of the world.
In terms of adding to the rest of the world’s GDP, even though we’re growing slowly, the U.S. remains by far the biggest contributor.
Hacking and Tracking the Conversation
Andy Baio announced on his blog today that he is joining the web technology think tank Expert Labs, along with Director and blogging forefather Anil Dash and Gina Trapani, former founding-editor of mega-blog LifeHacker.
Baio says the group's goal is "to help government make better decisions about policy by listening to citizens in the places they already are: social networks like Twitter and Facebook."
Trapani built an open source software product called ThinkUp, which collects and analyzes responses to questions posted on social networks. Dash brought it to Washington, partnering with the Obama Administration early this year. Now Baio will hack on ThinkUp, the social media conversation and Washington.
"There's tons to do," he wrote this morning, "but I'm particularly excited to tackle ThinkUp's ability to separate signal from noise, making it easier to derive meaning from hundreds or thousands of responses, using visualization, clustering, sentiment analysis, and robotic hamsters. I'm planning on building some fun hacks on top of ThinkUp, as well as keeping an eye open for other vectors to tackle our core mission."
In making the move, Baio will leave his spot as CTO of the fast-growing and innovative crowdsourced funding platform KickStarter. KickStarter announced last month that more than 250,000 people have now pledged over $20 million to fund home-recorded music projects, independent films and books and many other creative projects, in just 18 months since the site launched. "Kickstarter's leading an indie-culture revolution," Baio writes. He'll stay on in an advisory capacity.
Baio says he rarely feels engaged enough to write about his political opinions, but he believes technology could be key to solving the country's biggest problems. "To tackle our most serious national issues, we need better communication between government and citizens," he says. "I want my son to grow up in a world where he doesn't feel disconnected and disillusioned by government, and I want government to meet the needs of the people, rather than favoring those with the most money or the loudest voices."
Look out Washington, Baio is already among your ranks. It's sure to be interesting.
Audio Interview: Andy Baio - A Master of Crowdsourcing
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<b>News</b> Corp's Two Newspaper Tablet Projects are Back on Track
After stories that Rupert Murdoch had binned his adventurous newspaper app project, his son James has said Project Alesia is going ahead, whether other newspapers want their content aggregated or not.
The Newsonomics of <b>news</b> anywhere » Nieman Journalism Lab
News Anywhere, or unified news, or All-Access, whatever we want to call it, demands the singular focus, product development and messaging that Netflix, HBO, Comcast, and Facebook are bringing to it. Those are all skills that have been ...
Michelle Malkin » Sen. Rockefeller: One-Man Cable <b>News</b> Death Panel
Doesn't Rockefeller have a ton of money with which to develop his own network news operation if he wishes? Why doesn't he deploy his own capital and take the risk associated with free enterprise activities if he believes it is warranted ...
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The Conference Board, a global research association, made a splash with their 2011 global outlook. The group’s most interesting claims are that emerging markets will drive “global growth” and that China could pass the U.S. on one measure of economic size as early as 2012. The Conference Board is making two mistakes many observers make, and which the media gladly eats up.
First, the Conference Board projects China could have a larger economy than America when adjusting for purchasing power parity (ppp). PPP is a way to account for different prices across countries. For example, most things are cheaper in China than the U.S., so a dollar’s worth of money, or 6.7 yuan, generally buys more in the PRC than the U.S.
In that light, the dollar value of China’s GDP should be revised higher in comparison to America’s. For 2009, the World Bank has American GDP near $14.3 trillion and Chinese GDP at $9.1 trillion using ppp, where using normal GDP China was at $4.9 trillion.
Moreover, China almost always revises GDP higher after the fact and boasts much faster growth than the U.S. It’s not going to pass the U.S. in 2012 but, in current ppp terms, it could get close. Hence the headline.
Now the part headlines miss: prices change. What a dollar’s worth of money buys in the PRC is slipping. Chinese prices are rising faster than American prices, arguably much faster. The ppp comparison between the U.S. and China’s is going to change, making China’s economy look smaller.
This has happened before. The last time the World Bank adjusted its ppp measurements, the ostensible size of the Chinese economy fell 40 percent. PPP has advantages but, as you move farther in time from the price measurements that give purchasing power across economies, ppp can tell a very inaccurate story.
The Conference Board might have adjusted for prices changing over time but they gave no indication of having done so. More important: most commentators will not adjust for changing prices; they will take the current ppp measurement and run. That will in turn generate a lot of false claims that China’s economy is soon to be bigger than America’s.
The second mistake the Conference Board made is already common: fast-growing economies drive global growth. That seems sensible but it gives fast-growing economies too much credit. Fast-growing economies may be helping everyone but they may be only helping themselves.
In 2010, China will not add to the rest of the world’s GDP, its trade surplus means it will take almost $200 billion away from the rest of the world’s GDP. This is just a function of how GDP is counted. The PRC does contribute to the world economy in many ways but it is badly misleading to suggest that it is doing the most to help the rest of the world. China is raising the average of GDP growth among countries but doing so in part by continuing to drain GDP from the rest of the world.
In terms of adding to the rest of the world’s GDP, even though we’re growing slowly, the U.S. remains by far the biggest contributor.
Hacking and Tracking the Conversation
Andy Baio announced on his blog today that he is joining the web technology think tank Expert Labs, along with Director and blogging forefather Anil Dash and Gina Trapani, former founding-editor of mega-blog LifeHacker.
Baio says the group's goal is "to help government make better decisions about policy by listening to citizens in the places they already are: social networks like Twitter and Facebook."
Trapani built an open source software product called ThinkUp, which collects and analyzes responses to questions posted on social networks. Dash brought it to Washington, partnering with the Obama Administration early this year. Now Baio will hack on ThinkUp, the social media conversation and Washington.
"There's tons to do," he wrote this morning, "but I'm particularly excited to tackle ThinkUp's ability to separate signal from noise, making it easier to derive meaning from hundreds or thousands of responses, using visualization, clustering, sentiment analysis, and robotic hamsters. I'm planning on building some fun hacks on top of ThinkUp, as well as keeping an eye open for other vectors to tackle our core mission."
In making the move, Baio will leave his spot as CTO of the fast-growing and innovative crowdsourced funding platform KickStarter. KickStarter announced last month that more than 250,000 people have now pledged over $20 million to fund home-recorded music projects, independent films and books and many other creative projects, in just 18 months since the site launched. "Kickstarter's leading an indie-culture revolution," Baio writes. He'll stay on in an advisory capacity.
Baio says he rarely feels engaged enough to write about his political opinions, but he believes technology could be key to solving the country's biggest problems. "To tackle our most serious national issues, we need better communication between government and citizens," he says. "I want my son to grow up in a world where he doesn't feel disconnected and disillusioned by government, and I want government to meet the needs of the people, rather than favoring those with the most money or the loudest voices."
Look out Washington, Baio is already among your ranks. It's sure to be interesting.
Audio Interview: Andy Baio - A Master of Crowdsourcing
bench craft company>
<b>News</b> Corp's Two Newspaper Tablet Projects are Back on Track
After stories that Rupert Murdoch had binned his adventurous newspaper app project, his son James has said Project Alesia is going ahead, whether other newspapers want their content aggregated or not.
The Newsonomics of <b>news</b> anywhere » Nieman Journalism Lab
News Anywhere, or unified news, or All-Access, whatever we want to call it, demands the singular focus, product development and messaging that Netflix, HBO, Comcast, and Facebook are bringing to it. Those are all skills that have been ...
Michelle Malkin » Sen. Rockefeller: One-Man Cable <b>News</b> Death Panel
Doesn't Rockefeller have a ton of money with which to develop his own network news operation if he wishes? Why doesn't he deploy his own capital and take the risk associated with free enterprise activities if he believes it is warranted ...
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bench craft company
<b>News</b> Corp's Two Newspaper Tablet Projects are Back on Track
After stories that Rupert Murdoch had binned his adventurous newspaper app project, his son James has said Project Alesia is going ahead, whether other newspapers want their content aggregated or not.
The Newsonomics of <b>news</b> anywhere » Nieman Journalism Lab
News Anywhere, or unified news, or All-Access, whatever we want to call it, demands the singular focus, product development and messaging that Netflix, HBO, Comcast, and Facebook are bringing to it. Those are all skills that have been ...
Michelle Malkin » Sen. Rockefeller: One-Man Cable <b>News</b> Death Panel
Doesn't Rockefeller have a ton of money with which to develop his own network news operation if he wishes? Why doesn't he deploy his own capital and take the risk associated with free enterprise activities if he believes it is warranted ...
bench craft company
The Conference Board, a global research association, made a splash with their 2011 global outlook. The group’s most interesting claims are that emerging markets will drive “global growth” and that China could pass the U.S. on one measure of economic size as early as 2012. The Conference Board is making two mistakes many observers make, and which the media gladly eats up.
First, the Conference Board projects China could have a larger economy than America when adjusting for purchasing power parity (ppp). PPP is a way to account for different prices across countries. For example, most things are cheaper in China than the U.S., so a dollar’s worth of money, or 6.7 yuan, generally buys more in the PRC than the U.S.
In that light, the dollar value of China’s GDP should be revised higher in comparison to America’s. For 2009, the World Bank has American GDP near $14.3 trillion and Chinese GDP at $9.1 trillion using ppp, where using normal GDP China was at $4.9 trillion.
Moreover, China almost always revises GDP higher after the fact and boasts much faster growth than the U.S. It’s not going to pass the U.S. in 2012 but, in current ppp terms, it could get close. Hence the headline.
Now the part headlines miss: prices change. What a dollar’s worth of money buys in the PRC is slipping. Chinese prices are rising faster than American prices, arguably much faster. The ppp comparison between the U.S. and China’s is going to change, making China’s economy look smaller.
This has happened before. The last time the World Bank adjusted its ppp measurements, the ostensible size of the Chinese economy fell 40 percent. PPP has advantages but, as you move farther in time from the price measurements that give purchasing power across economies, ppp can tell a very inaccurate story.
The Conference Board might have adjusted for prices changing over time but they gave no indication of having done so. More important: most commentators will not adjust for changing prices; they will take the current ppp measurement and run. That will in turn generate a lot of false claims that China’s economy is soon to be bigger than America’s.
The second mistake the Conference Board made is already common: fast-growing economies drive global growth. That seems sensible but it gives fast-growing economies too much credit. Fast-growing economies may be helping everyone but they may be only helping themselves.
In 2010, China will not add to the rest of the world’s GDP, its trade surplus means it will take almost $200 billion away from the rest of the world’s GDP. This is just a function of how GDP is counted. The PRC does contribute to the world economy in many ways but it is badly misleading to suggest that it is doing the most to help the rest of the world. China is raising the average of GDP growth among countries but doing so in part by continuing to drain GDP from the rest of the world.
In terms of adding to the rest of the world’s GDP, even though we’re growing slowly, the U.S. remains by far the biggest contributor.
Hacking and Tracking the Conversation
Andy Baio announced on his blog today that he is joining the web technology think tank Expert Labs, along with Director and blogging forefather Anil Dash and Gina Trapani, former founding-editor of mega-blog LifeHacker.
Baio says the group's goal is "to help government make better decisions about policy by listening to citizens in the places they already are: social networks like Twitter and Facebook."
Trapani built an open source software product called ThinkUp, which collects and analyzes responses to questions posted on social networks. Dash brought it to Washington, partnering with the Obama Administration early this year. Now Baio will hack on ThinkUp, the social media conversation and Washington.
"There's tons to do," he wrote this morning, "but I'm particularly excited to tackle ThinkUp's ability to separate signal from noise, making it easier to derive meaning from hundreds or thousands of responses, using visualization, clustering, sentiment analysis, and robotic hamsters. I'm planning on building some fun hacks on top of ThinkUp, as well as keeping an eye open for other vectors to tackle our core mission."
In making the move, Baio will leave his spot as CTO of the fast-growing and innovative crowdsourced funding platform KickStarter. KickStarter announced last month that more than 250,000 people have now pledged over $20 million to fund home-recorded music projects, independent films and books and many other creative projects, in just 18 months since the site launched. "Kickstarter's leading an indie-culture revolution," Baio writes. He'll stay on in an advisory capacity.
Baio says he rarely feels engaged enough to write about his political opinions, but he believes technology could be key to solving the country's biggest problems. "To tackle our most serious national issues, we need better communication between government and citizens," he says. "I want my son to grow up in a world where he doesn't feel disconnected and disillusioned by government, and I want government to meet the needs of the people, rather than favoring those with the most money or the loudest voices."
Look out Washington, Baio is already among your ranks. It's sure to be interesting.
Audio Interview: Andy Baio - A Master of Crowdsourcing
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<b>News</b> Corp's Two Newspaper Tablet Projects are Back on Track
After stories that Rupert Murdoch had binned his adventurous newspaper app project, his son James has said Project Alesia is going ahead, whether other newspapers want their content aggregated or not.
The Newsonomics of <b>news</b> anywhere » Nieman Journalism Lab
News Anywhere, or unified news, or All-Access, whatever we want to call it, demands the singular focus, product development and messaging that Netflix, HBO, Comcast, and Facebook are bringing to it. Those are all skills that have been ...
Michelle Malkin » Sen. Rockefeller: One-Man Cable <b>News</b> Death Panel
Doesn't Rockefeller have a ton of money with which to develop his own network news operation if he wishes? Why doesn't he deploy his own capital and take the risk associated with free enterprise activities if he believes it is warranted ...
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<b>News</b> Corp's Two Newspaper Tablet Projects are Back on Track
After stories that Rupert Murdoch had binned his adventurous newspaper app project, his son James has said Project Alesia is going ahead, whether other newspapers want their content aggregated or not.
The Newsonomics of <b>news</b> anywhere » Nieman Journalism Lab
News Anywhere, or unified news, or All-Access, whatever we want to call it, demands the singular focus, product development and messaging that Netflix, HBO, Comcast, and Facebook are bringing to it. Those are all skills that have been ...
Michelle Malkin » Sen. Rockefeller: One-Man Cable <b>News</b> Death Panel
Doesn't Rockefeller have a ton of money with which to develop his own network news operation if he wishes? Why doesn't he deploy his own capital and take the risk associated with free enterprise activities if he believes it is warranted ...
bench craft company
<b>News</b> Corp's Two Newspaper Tablet Projects are Back on Track
After stories that Rupert Murdoch had binned his adventurous newspaper app project, his son James has said Project Alesia is going ahead, whether other newspapers want their content aggregated or not.
The Newsonomics of <b>news</b> anywhere » Nieman Journalism Lab
News Anywhere, or unified news, or All-Access, whatever we want to call it, demands the singular focus, product development and messaging that Netflix, HBO, Comcast, and Facebook are bringing to it. Those are all skills that have been ...
Michelle Malkin » Sen. Rockefeller: One-Man Cable <b>News</b> Death Panel
Doesn't Rockefeller have a ton of money with which to develop his own network news operation if he wishes? Why doesn't he deploy his own capital and take the risk associated with free enterprise activities if he believes it is warranted ...
bench craft company
<b>News</b> Corp's Two Newspaper Tablet Projects are Back on Track
After stories that Rupert Murdoch had binned his adventurous newspaper app project, his son James has said Project Alesia is going ahead, whether other newspapers want their content aggregated or not.
The Newsonomics of <b>news</b> anywhere » Nieman Journalism Lab
News Anywhere, or unified news, or All-Access, whatever we want to call it, demands the singular focus, product development and messaging that Netflix, HBO, Comcast, and Facebook are bringing to it. Those are all skills that have been ...
Michelle Malkin » Sen. Rockefeller: One-Man Cable <b>News</b> Death Panel
Doesn't Rockefeller have a ton of money with which to develop his own network news operation if he wishes? Why doesn't he deploy his own capital and take the risk associated with free enterprise activities if he believes it is warranted ...
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<b>News</b> Corp's Two Newspaper Tablet Projects are Back on Track
After stories that Rupert Murdoch had binned his adventurous newspaper app project, his son James has said Project Alesia is going ahead, whether other newspapers want their content aggregated or not.
The Newsonomics of <b>news</b> anywhere » Nieman Journalism Lab
News Anywhere, or unified news, or All-Access, whatever we want to call it, demands the singular focus, product development and messaging that Netflix, HBO, Comcast, and Facebook are bringing to it. Those are all skills that have been ...
Michelle Malkin » Sen. Rockefeller: One-Man Cable <b>News</b> Death Panel
Doesn't Rockefeller have a ton of money with which to develop his own network news operation if he wishes? Why doesn't he deploy his own capital and take the risk associated with free enterprise activities if he believes it is warranted ...
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